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Turkey's Global Role... With a Change of Government?

  • Writer: Internationally
    Internationally
  • May 6, 2023
  • 3 min read

By Connor Fernandez Quelch -


Turkey historically embodied the convergence of two worlds: Europe and Asia. Hence its importance as a key geopolitical country, and also, an inevitable point were cultures clash. With more than 85 million people and an economy of roughly $910 billion dollars[i], Turkey is part of NATO, OECD and the G20, being one of the world’s most important countries in terms of politics and economy.


Nowadays, the country is living hectic times: presidential and parliamentary elections are to be held next May 14th. Plus, echoes from several earthquakes that hit two months ago still mobilize the population and entail infrastructure rebuilding, new oil deposits were discovered (which would mean as 100,000 barrels per day)[ii], the secret services had assassinated Daesh’s leader (previous Islamic State movement)[iii], and its first nuclear power plant began operations- product of international cooperation with Russia-. [iv] 


What adds dynamism to the present days is that Turkey is undergoing a +50% annual inflation and President Erdogan is really tied with opponent Kilicdaroglu at polls- 42% vote intention for the first and 44% for the latter.[v] At first, Erdogan appeared firm to align to the West, including a European Union admission attempt, but then turned to a religious discourse, democratic undermining and a clear flirt with autocrats as Putin and Xi Jinping. Kilicdaroglu personifies the model to “go orthodox” in political and economic terms.[vi]


But will Erdogan lose the elections? Incumbent President counts on a loyal religious-political network with 10 million AKP affiliates (his political party) that actively defend his regime [vii], media is tightly controlled, nationalists find pride in his figure, and the lack of individual liberties regarding unbiased scholars, women rights and presence, independent judges and minority ethnic group participation might force the balance in Erdogan’s favor.


Opposition might strike hard nonetheless: several citizens are tired of the social suffocation, as the ones that occurred at the Ghezi Park protests in 2013 or the daily discredit to women and open liberal thinking. As economy is not doing so good- compared to the beginning of the 2000s- undecided voters might turn this side of the political contest. And, the role of the Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party and its voters still is determinant, mainly for Parliament elections as they didn’t place any presidential candidate. Remember the more than 30 million Kurdish people disseminated through Iran, Irak, Siria and Turkey, where in the latter country represent around 15 million people.


What is important to highlight is that Erdogan seems tired. He has been changing political norms for the last decade, winning tight elections. Will he still have energy to prevail? He is present at the top of the political power for more than 25 years. But as all autocrats, he would like to remain forever… So he will try!


As we mentioned at the beginning, Turkey is an important actor of the international arena. A few days ago, Turkey withdrew its veto vote against Finland’s intention to enter NATO, while still holding it towards Sweden (as some local groups recognize Kurdish claims and give asylum). This might anger Russia. But Erdogan does what it takes to please his friend Putin by other means: military, energy sector, economic links and more. Last point to clear out is Turkey’s pending subject towards climate change: the country has reaffirmed its fossil dependence in imports and production[viii], added to the peevish attitude towards the Paris Agreement, ratifying it five years after the global commitment. [ix]


[ii] Republic World - Turkey: Erdogan Announces Major Oil Discovery With Capacity Of 100,000 Barrels Per Day https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/middle-east/turkey-erdogan-announces-major-oil-discovery-with-capacity-of-100000-barrels-per-day-articleshow.html

[iii] EuroNews – Erdogan anuncia que el servicio secreto turco ha matado al líder del Estado Islámico https://es.euronews.com/2023/05/01/erdogan-anuncia-que-el-servicio-secreto-turco-ha-matado-al-lider-del-estado-islamico 

[iv] World Nuclear News – Presidents address ceremony inaugurating Turkey’s first nuclear plant https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Presidents-address-ceremony-inaugurating%C2%A0Turkey-s

[vii] Berk Esen and Sebnem Gumuscu - Turkey: How the Coup Failed, Journal of Democracy, Volume 28, Number 1, January 2017, pp. 59-73.

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